{
  "version": "2026-09-22-school-specific-full-school-shares",
  "status": "Conditional 2027-28 composition estimates, not observed counts, admissions decisions or a district forecast.",
  "method": "Apply each school's own 2025-26 K-5 enrollment composition to its current K-4 plus assumed incoming kindergarten: 307 Bear Creek pupils and 183 Mesa pupils. Use the same full-school share for returning pupils and new kindergarten; do not pool the schools or use a separate kindergarten rate.",
  "definition": "OE means outside the proposed combined attendance area, excluding district placements. Transfers between Mesa and Bear Creek count as combined-area residents.",
  "rounding": "Video labels round independently to whole students; in this scenario 380 + 21 + 55 + 34 = 490. The website calculation table shows one decimal; all later arithmetic and chart widths use unrounded values.",
  "combined_area_columns": [
    "Bear Creek",
    "Mesa",
    "Optional Bear Creek/Creekside",
    "Optional Bear Creek/Mesa"
  ],
  "returning_current_k4": 422,
  "assumed_new_kindergarten": 68,
  "benchmark": 490,
  "historical_total": 536,
  "schools": [
    {
      "school": "Bear Creek",
      "current_k4": 264,
      "assumed_new_kindergarten": 43,
      "benchmark": 307,
      "historical_total": 312,
      "residents": 243,
      "placements": 13,
      "outside_oe": 56
    },
    {
      "school": "Mesa",
      "current_k4": 158,
      "assumed_new_kindergarten": 25,
      "benchmark": 183,
      "historical_total": 224,
      "residents": 172,
      "placements": 10,
      "outside_oe": 42
    }
  ],
  "groups": [
    {
      "category": "Combined-area residents",
      "components": [
        {
          "school": "Bear Creek",
          "historical_count": 243,
          "denominator": 312,
          "benchmark": 307,
          "formula": "307 * 243 / 312",
          "exact": "24867/104"
        },
        {
          "school": "Mesa",
          "historical_count": 172,
          "denominator": 224,
          "benchmark": 183,
          "formula": "183 * 172 / 224",
          "exact": "7869/56"
        }
      ],
      "historical_count": 415,
      "historical_display": "243 + 172",
      "formula": "307 * 243 / 312 + 183 * 172 / 224",
      "formula_display": "307 × 243 / 312 + 183 × 172 / 224",
      "exact": "138183/364",
      "estimate": 379.6236263736264,
      "display": "379.6",
      "video_display": "380"
    },
    {
      "category": "District placements",
      "components": [
        {
          "school": "Bear Creek",
          "historical_count": 13,
          "denominator": 312,
          "benchmark": 307,
          "formula": "307 * 13 / 312",
          "exact": "307/24"
        },
        {
          "school": "Mesa",
          "historical_count": 10,
          "denominator": 224,
          "benchmark": 183,
          "formula": "183 * 10 / 224",
          "exact": "915/112"
        }
      ],
      "historical_count": 23,
      "historical_display": "13 + 10",
      "formula": "307 * 13 / 312 + 183 * 10 / 224",
      "formula_display": "307 × 13 / 312 + 183 × 10 / 224",
      "exact": "7043/336",
      "estimate": 20.961309523809526,
      "display": "21.0",
      "video_display": "21"
    },
    {
      "category": "Bear Creek outside-area OE",
      "components": [
        {
          "school": "Bear Creek",
          "historical_count": 56,
          "denominator": 312,
          "benchmark": 307,
          "formula": "307 * 56 / 312",
          "exact": "2149/39"
        }
      ],
      "historical_count": 56,
      "historical_display": "56",
      "formula": "307 * 56 / 312",
      "formula_display": "307 × 56 / 312",
      "exact": "2149/39",
      "estimate": 55.1025641025641,
      "display": "55.1",
      "video_display": "55"
    },
    {
      "category": "Mesa outside-area OE",
      "components": [
        {
          "school": "Mesa",
          "historical_count": 42,
          "denominator": 224,
          "benchmark": 183,
          "formula": "183 * 42 / 224",
          "exact": "549/16"
        }
      ],
      "historical_count": 42,
      "historical_display": "42",
      "formula": "183 * 42 / 224",
      "formula_display": "183 × 42 / 224",
      "exact": "549/16",
      "estimate": 34.3125,
      "display": "34.3",
      "video_display": "34"
    }
  ],
  "correction": {
    "bear_creek_school_oe": 83,
    "mesa_residents_at_bear_creek": 27,
    "bear_creek_outside": 56,
    "mesa_school_oe": 58,
    "bear_creek_residents_at_mesa": 16,
    "mesa_outside": 42,
    "explanation": "Subtract 27 from Bear Creek attendance OE and 16 from Mesa attendance OE. Matrix rows are attendance; columns are residence."
  },
  "remainder_excluding_mesa_estimate": 455.6875,
  "gap_to_upper_after_excluding_mesa": 10.6875,
  "district_projection": [
    392,
    445
  ],
  "benchmark_to_projection_gap": [
    45,
    98
  ],
  "published_capacity": 492,
  "room_scenario": {
    "total_rooms": 20,
    "assumed_program_rooms": 3,
    "remaining_rooms": 17,
    "video_multiplier": 24.6,
    "product": 418.2,
    "rounded_product": 418,
    "staff_multiplier": 24.58,
    "staff_product": 491.6,
    "status": "Hypothetical general-education room arithmetic. Not a verified whole-school capacity; program pupils and spaces must be reconciled."
  },
  "assumptions": [
    "All current K-4 pupils return; new kindergarten equals the current combined 68.",
    "Each school's historical full-school composition holds for both its returning pupils and assumed incoming kindergarten; no additional net cohort growth.",
    "Projection exclusions do not establish how many current applicants will be denied admission."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "file": "data/raw/bvsd/oe_matrices/elem_matrix_2025-26.pdf",
      "locator": "p. 1, Bear Creek and Mesa school-of-attendance rows; four combined-area residence columns and placement summary",
      "sha256": "7ab63673569a4b3239e938cf6f5ade5a6f91e6ecda36c8555ccc76595025258b"
    },
    {
      "file": "data/raw/bvsd/enrollment_2026-27_weekly/enrollment_2026-08-28.pdf",
      "locator": "p. 1, BEAR CREEK and MESA rows, K through grade 5",
      "sha256": "5c2500b4f21fccd6dbfb237cb60e3f068e6369be7af7fc16e00e615765c7cc41"
    },
    {
      "file": "data/raw/bvsd/resilient_schools_proposal_2026-08-25.pdf",
      "locator": "p. 51, combined enrollment projection and stated capacity",
      "sha256": "6442f24035f0010dbf2ce42ddc336f8a8d41ff52564c4018c51e683364c5900a"
    }
  ],
  "meeting_sources": [
    {
      "file": "site-support/september-2026/sources/sept15-transcript.json",
      "locator": "02:03:03 through 02:08:48; enrollment assumptions and current-student placement discussion; 02:10 onward, capacity explanation; auto-generated captions, cues 2677-2691, 2812-2827 and 2870-2912"
    },
    {
      "file": "site-support/september-2026/assets/deck-page-20.png",
      "locator": "September 15 slide 20; upper/lower projection assumptions"
    }
  ]
}